Bit.ly and others: how do they work?

Posted on May 13, 2013 by

If you have used URL shorteners, you may not have paid much attention to how they work.  My favorite short URL service is http://j.mp .  It is owned by the folks at Bit.ly, but is a couple of letters shorter…a great thing for the Twitter auteurs out there!

These service work by using a simple redirect: they store the short URL and the paired original long URL in a database.  Optionally at Bit.ly, you can also track how many times your link was clicked on.

But, don’t you ever wonder that with all the billions of links out there, that these services will run out of URLs?  Let’s do some math, and you will see that even a short URL can have an amazing number of available combinations.  As part of the work we do at Lakeshore Tech, we can create a similar short URL service for any website, using their own domain (and the shorter, the better).

First, a couple of numerical facts.

There are 26 capital letters in the alphabet.  There are also 26 lowercase letters.  The URLs differentiate between the two.  Both of these sets results in 52 characters total.

The digits zero through nine amount to 10 more digits.  Add that to the above, and you get 62 characters total.

For now, we will leave out punctuation characters–some are valid, some are not, but even our 62 characters will provide a good example.

If our short URL were only one character long (http://x.xx/z), we would have only 62 choices.  But once we start multiplying, that number will explode.  Check these out!

2 characters: 3,844 combinations.
3 characters: 238,328 combinations!
(Three characters and we already have nearly a quarter of a million combinations!)
4 characters: 14,776,336 combinations.
5 characters: 916,132,832.
6 characters: 56,800,235,584.
7 characters: 3,521,614,606,208.
8 characters: 218,340,105,584,896.
9 characters: 13,537,086,546,263,552.
10 characters: 839,299,365,868,340,224.

I think we need not continue!  For a typical website like we usually work on, we likely would not go beyond four characters.  So, don’t worry about using up Bit.ly’s short URLs–they have plenty to go around!

Posted in Internet Life | Leave a comment

Nexus 4: having trouble with the ADB showing device is offline?

Posted on April 25, 2013 by

I received the Nexus 4 a couple of days ago.  Today I wanted to root it and try another ROM (such as the latest Milestone build of AOKP), but I could not get past an issue with the device appearing offline.  I had properly installed the drivers in Windows 8, and fastboot would work, but the adb command did nothing.

I found out that the few packages of SDK tools that I had downloaded online were all outdated.  With the most recent Android upgrade to version 4.2.2, it added a new security feature requiring you confirm the RSA fingerprint of the computer that you are attaching the phone to.  If you have your drivers installed properly, but you do NOT see this RSA fingerprint confirmation appear, then you may have outdated SDK tools.  In fact, if you run this at the command line:

adb version

You should see the following as a result:

Android Debug Bridge version 1.0.31

This is the latest version.  Don’t mess around with any of the download links out there–just go direct to the source:  http://developer.android.com/sdk/ .  Granted it is a very large download (600MB+), but downloading direct from Google will ensure that you have the latest utilities.  If you do see SDK utilities to download, or you have them already, verify that adb is at version 1.0.31 or higher (1.0.31 is current as of this writing).

Sure enough, I ran an adb command from the new download, and I got the RSA confirmation pop up on the Nexus 4.  I was able to backup my phone, and I’m on my way to unlocking the bootloader, rooting the phone and trying a new ROM.  Nexus is full of all sorts of developer goodness!

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Dropbox for Students

Posted on March 4, 2013 by

How many times have you driven all the way to school, only to find out you’d left some important document, or your USB flash drive, at home?  A dozen times?  Three or four?  Just once…when it was an important midterm essay worth a quarter of your grade?

This article will help you utilize a free service to help you keep your files available to you at all times.  While this article applies to Dropbox in particular, the same principles apply to the other cloud-based storage services out there, including SugarSync, Google Cloud Drive, Microsoft SkyDrive, BitCasa and others.  They each have their minor differences, but they accomplish the same task: they all store copies of your documents in a central location.

So, why do you want to do that?  Isn’t keeping them on your computer at home good enough for you?  After all, can’t you just copy your work to a USB flash drive before you leave the house, or bring your laptop along?

That thought alone is a recipe for disaster.  Maybe you create that file on your desktop computer.  Maybe you copied that by using your flash drive to move it to your laptop, and made a few changes there.  Then, you take the flash drive to school and open up your document, perhaps tweaking a font setting here or there.  What you now have are possibly up to three different versions of your files scattered across three different devices.  Which one is the most current?  Which one has the correct version of the document you were looking for?

That is where central storage comes into play.  (The providers call these “cloud” services.)  And to take the pain out of remembering to move your files around, what you do is install a small utility on each computer you use, as well as on other other devices, so you can automatically synchronize those files across all of your devices.

When you setup Dropbox (more on that later), what you do is point Dropbox to a folder on your computer where you would like to store your files.  Here is where it takes a bit of pre-planning.  On my Windows computers, I make certain that all of my files are stored in My Documents.  Within My Documents is my Dropbox folder.  I have been able to retrain myself to save all of my “portable” files (or, any file I want to have available to me on all devices) to my Dropbox folder, and the Dropbox utility then automatically synchronizes it to my account.  As I work and continue to save, the latest version is being synced automatically to Dropbox.

What I might do is start on an essay on my laptop, relaxing at home, then work on it while on break at school.  When it comes times to get it ready for print, I will then open it on my desktop computer and finish it up.  With Dropbox syncing the file, the copy I open up on my desktop computer is the same version (the same actual file!) as the one I prepared on the laptop.

So, I head off to school, arrive in class and realize I forgot to print out my assignment!    This could work to my advantage in two ways.  If I’m fortunate in that my instructor may accept an emailed copy, I then use the Dropbox app on my phone to retrieve the file, attach it to an email, and send it to the instructor immediately.  Or if a printed copy is all that will do, I can head to the library, log in to Dropbox via the web, download the file from my account and print it.

Another nice feature of Dropbox is that it save previous versions of your files.  If you made massive edits to your essay and deleted a lot of your writing, but later realized you really wanted to keep some of it, you can go back into Dropbox on the web and restore an older version of the file.

Need to share a Powerpoint presentation with a classmate?  That is simple as well!  From your folder, you can right-click a file and choose the option to share that file with someone.  You can also share entire folders.  To share, Dropbox gives you a link to email to another person, and they will be able to retrieve that file.  They will not, however, be able to upload that file–they have read-only permissions on that file, and any modifications will require that they email the edited file to you.

Dropbox is also a great way to transfer files.  Do you have a dozen photos you took with your smartphone camera and want to touch them up in Photoshop?  Simply “share” them on your phone into your Dropbox folder and within moments, they will be synced to your computer for editing.

Finally, even if you use Dropbox only on one computer, you have the advantage of having a constant, live backup of your work.  In the event your computer has a disk failure or is stolen (in the case of a laptop), your files are still safely located online.

Installing Dropbox is easy.  It will ask you to setup an account.  The installer is very helpful, and allows you to customize which folder you install it in.  I like to install it within My Documents, as it makes backups of my computers easier.  In programs such as Word, Excel and others, you can set your default folder to a folder within your Dropbox, making it “set and forget” easy!

Dropbox is free for the first 2GB of storage space, but if you use the links in this article, we both receive 500MB of additional storage space.  Recommend your own account to others to increase space as well!  If you work on large files regularly, you can start with a paid account for $9.99/month (or $99/year) which will hold 100GB worth of files.

Keep in mind, though, that you will need an Internet connection to make certain your files are updated on your devices.

Other services mentioned above do basically the same thing (automatically synchronizing files), but have their own unique take on it.  Google Drive does sync files, plus it also acts as your storage for your Google Docs files.  Microsoft’s SkyDrive does the same but interfaces with Office365 (the online version of Office).  SugarSync is very similar to Dropbox.  Bitcasa does offer syncing, but only as part of a larger package of services.  For $10/month (with the first 2GB free), Bitcasa’s offering is an “unlimited” hard drive.

All of these are excellent tools to help you organize and keep the most current versions of your files with you at all times, along with providing a live and nearly instantaneous backup of your files.

Posted in Computing, Internet Life | Leave a comment

Shame on Oracle! DO NOT install Java unless…

Posted on January 24, 2013 by

Oracle has really stooped to a new low in recent versions of Java.  Not only are many recent releases still buggy and full of security vulnerabilities, they are also attempting to sneak such spyware (malware) on computers, such as the Ask Toolbar, and a McAfee scanner.  The only way to get around it is to babysit your entire installation procedure, even during updates, and make certain that any checkbox to install this malware is never checked off!  A good overview of the whole debacle is available via ZDNet:

http://www.zdnet.com/a-close-look-at-how-oracle-installs-deceptive-software-with-java-updates-7000010038/

Having said that, I would usually urge everyone to uninstall Java from their computers as soon as possible, and make certain that none of the malware was ever installed without their knowledge (which has been proven to happen).  But, in some instances there are important functions on websites that you need for work or school that require Java be installed.

Expecting users to install Java is already a stretch, but to install and trust Java is not going to happen–the general public does not know enough about computer operating systems, security and privacy, but I do not expect them to.   In this day and age, they should not have to!  Thankfully browsers are maturing to the point where they can actively refuse to install and/or activate these pointless add-ons, which exist only to generate revenue for Oracle.

As for Oracle…shame on you!  You should know better.  As big as you are in the enterprise world, do you really need to stoop to this level, depositing malware and spyware on users’ computers?

This is where I get a bit opinionated: we need these sites to get away from using Java at all.  Much like Flash (which is still in use, albeit waning…thankfully!) and sites geared only to one particular browser, companies hosting websites should never rely on a visitor to ever need to install any special add-on or plugin to view or use site content.  As I said, we are past that; this is 2013.

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Wireless Router Update (DD-WRT)

Posted on January 19, 2013 by

Cisco-Linksys WRT400N Simultaneous Dual-Band Wireless-N RouterMy WRT160N was doing OK but could have been better.  It still had quirks such as random crashes, losing settings, inability to connect to both G and N devices, and other quirks.  Nothing constant, but maybe once a week I had to reboot the router, or sometimes restore the router to default then reload my router settings.

I figured out the crashes and other instability: my NVRAM (non-volatile ram, where all of the router’s settings are stored) was running out of room.  It has room for 32,767 bytes and the router had exhausted that.  Part of it was the UPnP setting: this is what automatically assigns ports to pass through the router.  I made sure I set it so that old UPnP entries were removed.  At one time I had dozens, and those were all being stored in NVRAM, which filled it up.

As for other issues: just recently, someone on the DD-WRT forum mentioned trying a new firmware build (Fractal, build 20202), and I installed it.  It not only uses a new set of radio drivers (which have been out for a couple of years, but DD-WRT hasn’t exactly worked well with them), it also made everything much more stable.  I also installed the version of the build that has VPN support, so I now have that ability if I should need it.  All-around improvement!  I’d highly recommend it now if anyone buys a used WRT160N.

So once I got that router sorted out, I got the bug again. :laugh:  I went on Craigslist and found someone selling a WRT400N.  It looks exactly the same, but inside it has some differences.  For one, it has faster processor (made by Atheros), running at more than double the speed of the WRT160N. It also has a larger NVRAM.  It still only offers 10/100 speeds on the Ethernet ports, but the wireless is dual-band, where you can simultaneously run 2.4GHz and 5GHz network radios.  Unfortunately, it appears none of my wireless devices can use 5GHz.  (The 2.4GHz band is very crowded–wireless networks also share it with cordless phones and other devices. 5GHz in comparison is virtually unused.)  There are a couple of minor added features.

The nice thing was that the previous owner of the WRT400N had loaded DD-WRT on it, so all I had to do was plug it in and reconfigure it, matching all of my settings from the WRT160N.  I simply swapped in the 400N router after configuring it, and it’s been working fine.

I picked up the 400N for a reason though: I wanted another router to use as an access point.  I originally was going to use the 400N as the remote access point (wiring it to the main router via Ethernet cable), but now I use the 400N as my main router and the 160N as an access point.  Both are still on my desk, but I need to run cable from my desk to the living room, where I want another wired connection for the Sony media player, and also for wireless coverage to the bedrooms.

Little-known tip: to use a second router as an access point or an expansion of available Ethernet ports, you can simply connect the two routers together through their LAN ports.  (IOW, you do not use the WAN port on the remote router!)  When you do that, disable DHCP on the remote router, and point the DNS and gateway settings to the IP address of the primary router, that primary router then uses the remote as an extension of itself, and will handle the firewall, UPnP, DHCP, etc.  The LAN ports in most modern routers are auto-sensing so you do not need a crossover cable.

So I now have three wireless networks running.  The WRT400N and WRT160N are all running in N-only mode, and I upgraded network adapters on the bedroom computers to match.  I am temporarily using the wireless router in my Uverse DSL box for the gaming systems.  The Wii only runs at G speeds, and if I run a G device on an N network, the speed of that network drops to the speed of the slowest device.  Also, the  Nintendo DS only has WEP encryption, which can be cracked in just a handful of minutes.  So those are on a different subnet that cannot access any of our computers.  My primary network runs WPA2 encryption.  My goal is to get a third router so I can disable the Uverse wireless, and run it in G-only network mode and use WEP encryption.  It can be an older Linksys, as long as it runs DD-WRT. ;)

Part of my upgrade to wireless N speeds was because I’m now running a DLNA server on my main computer, which can send (and transcode) music and video to other devices in the house, such as the Sony SMP-N100 media player, and my new WD TV Live.  I’ve successfully streamed 720p movies simultaneously to both devices.  Once I can get a 3TB drive, I can load up all of my DVDs on it (I don’t have many) and have them accessible anywhere in the house, along with all of the music files I have ripped from CDs.

Posted in Networking | Leave a comment

Lighten up on Windows 8, OK?

Posted on January 10, 2013 by

Partly because I do support work for desktops, and partly because I was curious (and could get a good deal), I upgraded my main “work” computer to Windows 8.  ”But what about the crappy interface,” I hear a lot of people asking.

As I’ve been getting back into the swing of things, I’ve had time to get used to the OS.  Before I dispense my own opinion on the OS, let me get a few facts out of the way first.

First, Windows 8 appears to be as stable as Windows 7.  I have had not one single issue with it so far.  I’ve had to restart it several times, especially when I was updating, configuring or installing software or the OS.  Beyond that?  No problems.

Second, only a couple of applications needed to be reinstalled.  Everything else works!  I suffered no downtime finding dead applications.

Third, everything on my desktop is right where I left it.  OK, so the Start button is gone, of course, but my files and folders were still on the desktop, my wallpaper was intact, even my Quick Launch bar was at the bottom of the screen where I left it, in the same order.

Fourth, all of the standard Windows utilities are there, yet enhanced further over Windows 7.  The Task Manager has had its first major overhaul, adding new ways of sorting and categorizing usage data.  Explorer now has a ribbon similar to MS Office; I leave it closed most of the time, but it’s right there if I need it, and I can see it being a help to more neophyte users.  Also, the file operations dialog windows have changed–they now display a graph showing the transfer rate of the file operations (such as copying or moving), along with a hyperlink that will open up the destination folder with a single click.  It’s little touches like that which show that the OS has made some strides.

Finally, we need to remind ourselves that what Microsoft is calling “Windows 8″ is officially version 6.2 of Windows NT.  Yes, that’s right–Vista was actually 6.0, Windows 7 was 6.1, and Windows 8 is 6.2.  Changes from Vista to Win7 to Win8 have been incremental, especially under the hood.  The GUI of course has changed, but when you get back to your everyday desktop, it’s pretty much business as usual.

And while I write these three facts, it is very evident to me that during the daily course of work, nothing has changed.  All of my applications still work the same way.  I sit here wondering why there is such a fuss about Windows 8, when it hasn’t affected my workflow or the usage of my computer one bit.  Sure, occasionally I have to open a program that is not located on my Quick Launch bar, but that is very rare.  Even so, I can hop over to the Start screen by two different methods, right-click, then choose All Apps from the icon in the bottom right corner.

So, what about that Start screen anyway?  Yes, I use it, and I do enjoy it…but it is not something I use while working.  If I want to relax for a bit and catch up on some news, check the weather, monitor a favorite team on ESPN…it’s all there in live update form on the Start screen for me.  Even the games have had an overhaul–Microsoft’s Mahjongg (powered via Xbox) is now beautifully rendered.

One thing that really does not sit well with the start screen is how large it is on a 24″ LED monitor.  This is when it’s evident that Win8 was made more for a tablet or smaller computer (such as a notebook).  But even that turns into a positive for me–my eyes have gotten so bad that the start screen is probably the only thing I can still read on my screen without glasses!

My point in all this?  The big fuss over Windows 8 is much ado about nothing.  Yes the Start screen is new, but on a day to day basis, nothing has really changed.  Most of the negative commentary I’ve read so far falls into two categories: those who hate change and go into the new GUI with negative expectations, and those who have never even tried it.  (You wonder how these nay-sayers ever got out of the DOS era.)

Yes, it’s not perfect; yes, it’s different and not quite appropriate for a desktop.  But if you truly are doing serious work on your Windows 8 computer, that Start screen you love to hate is out of view and you rarely ever use it.   Lighten up!

So, what is this Quick Launch I keep talking about?  Ever since Windows XP, I have used a two-row taskbar on the bottom of my screen.  One row has all of my application icons (and in Win7 and Win8, I never pin anything to the taskbar), and the other is my quick launch bar, running the width of the screen.  Seeing how large my screen is now, I have room for about 75 tiny application icons.  I rarely used the start button when I had it in Win7.  Quick Launch is still there in Windows 8–you just have to enable it, then drag your favorite icons onto it.  I’ll give a full write-up on that in a future article.

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Windows 7 Repair Installation

Posted on December 23, 2012 by

Well over a year ago, I ran into some sort of networking issue on my Windows 7 computer that left me with a partially disabled Internet connection.  I could not use Internet Explorer, and that also meant that some Internet utilities would not work, including the desktop gadgets (which I missed), and even the Windows 8 upgrade utility would not function.  On top of it, I could not ping 127.0.0.1 or “localhost” in a Powershell window.  Something was seriously wrong.

Windows 7 LogoNumerous posts on other websites got me nowhere–everyone tried to help, but pretty much reiterated everything I had already tried.  I’d gone so far as to reset the TCP/IP stack, and do a few other really advanced networking tricks, to no avail.

I never did find out the problem, but I’m pretty sure I know what caused it.  At one point when our Internet connection was not working, I attempted to tether my smartphone to the computer via USB and use it for Internet access.  It barely worked, but that is around the time I started having problems with the computer.

I needed to get this working again, so I finally bit the bullet and read up about repair installations of Windows 7.  In the past, I had to fix Windows XP since the registry hives were constantly being corrupted by blue screen crashes.  (And that turned out to be caused by a frozen fan on the video card, which caused it to overheat and malfunction.)  In the case of XP, I was essentially starting over, having to create all new user accounts and move the files over, reinstall apps, etc.

So naturally I was quite wary of the whole process.  In Windows 7, however, a repair installation can be done which leaves your files, settings and applications completely intact once you know the trick.  After you insert your disc, you take a few steps through the process until you come to a choice where you can upgrade your OS.  Yes, it’s not really an upgrade, but what this does is refresh your whole system while still leaving everything intact.

Rather than reiterate it here, I’ll hand this off to the good fellows over at SevenForums who completely describe the process in their forum post here.  My one single bit of advice to you: follow their instructions to the letter!

Once I ran the repair installation, my full networking was restored. I found localhost.  Life was good!  I even noticed things running a little faster and smoother–I had 2-1/2 years of junk in my Windows 7 registry!  I disabled quite a few programs at startup also and to be honest, didn’t miss some of them.

If you ever get to that point where Windows 7 just does not act right, feel safe in doing a repair installation.  It works!

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Android: manufacturers and wireless providers need to get with the program!

Posted on October 29, 2012 by

I rarely rely on ruffling feathers, but the more I use and enjoy Android, one thing nags at me constantly: the lack of OS upgrades.

While the developers of Android offer the latest quickly, it takes the smartphone manfacturers and wireless providers months, even years, to push outdates out to customers.  Companies like Sprint and Verizon profit from being slow, as do the manufacturers: rather than provide us with timely updates for our older devices, they push us to upgrade to newer hardware, locking us into another contract.

I am still using an older phone, an HTC Thunderbolt, yet running the Liquid Smooth Gingerbread ROM due to its stripped down installation (it gets rid of the horrid Verizon bloatware and HTC’s Sense).  The phone is fast and smooth.  Only recently did Verizon finally cave in and offer an Ice Cream Sandwich update to this particular phone.  Yet as they did so, Jelly Bean (Android 4.1) had already been out for awhile and now, there are advanced articles about even more goodness by way of 4.2.  So ICS is basically two versions behind at this point.

These delays only serve to pad the pockets of the equipment manufacturers and the wireless carriers, while at the same time harming the Android ecosystem.   Even as I write this, there are still phones offered at Verizon that come installed with Gingerbread!  That is completely unacceptable.  Would you buy a computer with Windows 98?  That is exactly what Verizon is offering, in essence.

What I feel would really ignite Android if 1) Google required all carriers and manufacturers to sell all models unlocked, so owners could install their own ROM; and 2) reliable ROM developers would actually form a business entity and sell ROM upgrades.

Yes, a radical idea I know.  There are a lot of good ROM developers out there, but support for numerous models is sporadic at best.  The only semi-reliable third party ICS ROM available for the Thunderbolt is still broken (text issues with the Gmail app, non-functioning video camera, etc…both deal killers for a lot of us).

I would gladly pay $5 or even $10 to have a new custom ROM to install.  A developer or even  a small development company could easily make a living selling these ROMs as upgrades.  Selling 20,000 ROMs at $5 each would net them $100,000.  Given the millions of Android-based phones in use, having professional developers do this as their day job would really help push updates out into the ecosystem.

The installation process would need to be foolproof, and ROMs would need to be available through the Google Play store.  In other words, no different from any other software product they sell.  Google could also demand, by way of a licensing agreement, that Android could only be installed on devices if those devices were sold as unlocked and free to install the ROM of each user’s choice.

This would put Android-based hardware on par with desktop and laptop computers.  They might ship with Windows, but the user is free to reformat and install any operating system of their choice.  Smartphone essentially are computers, and there is no excuse they cannot do the same.  Closed systems (like their distant competitors) are not the answer.

Posted in Android Corner | Leave a comment

First Look: vBulletin 5 beta demonstrated today

Posted on September 12, 2012 by

While we no longer support versions of vBulletin from 4.0 and up, we still keep an eye on the major players in the market.  Today marks the release of a beta version of what the folks at Internet Brands are calling vBulletin 5 Connect.  We took a cursory look…or tried to, anyway, but the new version appears to even slower than the bloated vB4 which it is bound to replace.  We gave up trying to use it after awhile, as page loads took forever.  We realize part of this may have been an initial rush of visitors, and that the product is still in beta, but IB should know better and have adequate servers to demonstrate what is likely to become their next flagship product.

As expected, the new vB5 copies a lot of the clean look and feel from a certain competitor they are trying to run out of business via lawsuits (who shall remain nameless here).  But more confusingly, you can now comment on individual posts within a thread.  As if it is hard enough to follow a single conversation in a long-running thread, there will now be even more tangents to follow and completely derail discussions.

At times, we here at CWS shake our heads at the stripped-down offering of a system like Vanilla (which we could never use for any of our “big board” customers), yet Vanilla is so clean and uncluttered that it is actually a wise choice since discussions are easy to follow…with few distractions.  That is also why XenForo gets so many customers from systems like vBulletin: the system is powerful, yet more conducive to the simple task of reading and contributing to conversations…with again, few distractions.

Therein lies the problem: distractions.  vB3.7 and 3.8 both added more social features to the aging vB3 series, and vB4 piled even more clutter on top of the ancient code base; all of that clutter managed to slow down the system to the point where big board administrators decided to stay with older versions just to avoid the code bloat.  vB5 removes some of the “noise” from the postbit, yet the new post comments add a new series of distractions (which most members posting on the new beta vB5 are hoping can be turned off).

We are less than impressed for now, but are still keeping an eye on vB5 since it is so early in the game.  For those who must stay with vB, we are hoping that vB5 removed all the bloat and streamlined their product so it does not hammer on our servers so hard.

Posted in On The Internet | Leave a comment

Dot Com 2.0: Is another shakeout at hand?

Posted on April 9, 2012 by

Anyone else feel like 2012 is “Dot Com Boom 2.0″?  Consider Instagram’s market valuation around 500 million, with Facebook offering twice this amount today to buy Instagram.  Other companies I’m sure have been over-valued in recent months.  A lot of money is changing hands as these companies large and small buy each other up.

Add to it the explosion of all different types of social media, sharing and bookmarking platforms, and other online services that have come our way to make our lives a little easier.  There are too many of these, and there will be a shakeout.  Some are growing too large, too fast.

Back in the original Dot Com Boom (which I profited in–I owned stock in AOL, Amazon and Yahoo for awhile), the big companies grew even bigger, acquired smaller companies, and one day it all collapsed as the price adjusted itself to value.

If 2012 isn’t an echo of that, I don’t know what is.  Today there is more venture capital out there.  And developers now have cloud facilities such as Amazon Web Services where they can cheaply and easily deploy computing resources as needed.  All it takes now is someone with that killer idea.  Thing is, too many have killer ideas, with too much overlap.  Instagram has a nice little niche but let’s be practical: at it’s core, what is it?  A free photo sharing service.  How many free photo sharing services can coexist?  Nobody knows.  Multiply this by any other type of service (file sharing, journaling, blogging, bookmarking, etc.), and you’re looking at hundreds of companies, many of them overlapping.

Check out some of the other economics at work here.  The core of the economy is still not healthy.  The housing market is still in a rut due to an inventory glut of foreclosed homes.  Fuel prices are at a peak, which will drive up costs on everything (even food, clothing, etc.).  The dollar is dicey; the price of gold is far beyond what it was a few years ago.  Unemployment numbers are dropping, partly due to job growth, but also due to increasing numbers of workers falling from the unemployment compensation rolls and/or giving up job searches.  And there’s more.

With all the negative indicators, doesn’t it seem odd that there is essentially hyper-inflation in the tech sector?  A lot of money is flowing into these products and services, but many are not backed by a sound business model.  Have you paid to use most of these free services?  If not, who is?  We all love free stuff. Can this income from paying subscribers cover those of us who don’t shell out a single penny?  (This is called the “freemium” model, incidentally.)

It can’t sustain itself.

The bubble has to burst.  It did back in the original Dot Com bust, when everything was overvalued and the stock prices of these companies did not reflect what the companies were truly worth.  They were overvalued.  Their stock prices experienced hyper-inflation; heck, I profited from it myself.  Instagram may very well be worth every penny of $500 million, or it may not be–that is not the point here.  But how does a leisure-based photo sharing service (a free one yet) ever get to be worth more than the New York Times Co., which is over a century old?  See something wrong with this picture?

I would like to see this current Dot Com 2.0 trend continue, with young upstart companies finding success in niche products and services.  But with all the other indicators, I can’t see it going anywhere but down.  There is a ton of creativity out there, but there is too much, it’s growing too fast, and it’s overvalued.   And this could be the precursor to another Dot Com Shakeout.

The best, the most streamlined and the strongest will ride it out and survive. Big, lumbering dinosaurs will be too large to adapt quickly, and may very well collapse entirely, or need to reinvent or repurpose themselves to exist beyond any crash.

I don’t want to see any of this happen.  But if it does, don’t say I wasn’t skeptical back in April 2012…

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